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Here’s a post I did primarily for Volans:

I began to feel seriously uneasy about the economy some 18 months ago, warning colleagues at SustainAbility and elsewhere that I thought we were not only headed towards a recession, but towards something more like the early 1970s or 1980s, more protracted, stickier. All the evidence suggests that recession is not only here, but that it is gathering pace and is likely to drag in many sectors and economies that have to date managed to keep their distance from the vortex.

Over time, I have alternated between finding this a cause for concern and for excitement. On the first front, I have been saying in public for a while now that I think we may be seeing the last days of a golden age for a certain sort of corporate citizenship. Having lived and worked through the recessions of the 70s and 80s, I recall the way in which major companies squeezed back on their spending and staff in areas like safety, health and environment. A real trial if your business model depended on that spending and those people, of course, but over time the societal pressures on business continued to build and the removal of at least some of the earlier corproate defensive structures meant that over time the pressures drove even deeper into the heart of the beast.

My current sense is that this latest recession has at least as much rubbish to clean out of the system as those earlier ones, so though things tend to be a bit faster paced these days the net effect is that the undertow will extend through into 2010, at least. Again, more than a nuisance if your business model depends on corporate citizenship thinking, spending and people.

But, at the same time, and this is where the optimism creeps in, I think we are in the process of seeing an historic shift in this space, which I have tried to capture over the years with the Waves analysis I began in 1994. Wave 4, which has been building for a while, is now well under way, and over time is likely to focus increasingly on disruptive innovation and scalable entrepreneurial solutions to sustainability challenges.

As corporate citizenship and CSR expenditures are squeezed, I think we will see a shake-out in this field, a trail by ordeal. One possible consequence, and it’s one which I think Volans Ventures will be particularly well-positioned to respond to, is likely to be a refocusing of corporate budgets into areas where the greatest social and/or environmental return can be achieved (and demonstrated) per unit of spending.

This is something that that the ‘power of unreasonable people’ almost guarantees, though this is not without its downside risks – and the demonstration component still needs a good deal of further work. At the same time, too, it may be that some companies will decide to do more of this sort of thing internally, by developing their own entrepreneurial ventures, as we predict in The Social Intrapreneur. That said, the social intrapreneurs we spoke during the course of that study were united in wanting more contacts – not less – with leading social entrepreneurs.

Overall, since I studied economics in the 1960s have been a firm believer in the redemptive power, over time, of the processes of creative destruction. This is a subject I pursued in The Chrysalis Economy (Wiley, 2001) and more recently I refreshed my thinking on this side of economics by reading Thomas McCraw’s stunning biography of one of the most interesting and infuential economists of all time, Prophet of Innovation: Joseph Schumpeter and Creative Destruction.

British Museum 1

Early on in our two-week holiday, which we are spending in and around London, Elaine and I went in to see how things are coming on with the new Volans office in Bloomsbury Place.  Then we had lunch with Sam, before returning to the office to screw legs on to a new sofa.  Then Elaine and I visited the neighbours in the British Museum, which is some three minutes walk away.  We particularly wanted to see the Sutton Hoo hoard, after reading the book The Dig, but were struck by the standard of the exhibition design throughout.  Then a raid on Waterstones and the old Virgin record store in Piccadilly on the way home.

British Museum 2 British Museum 3 British Museum 4 British Museum 5 – Sutton Hoo helmet British Museum 6 – Sutton Hoo platter Gaia and Hania’s card to us – for their birthdays this week

Among the most beautiful things I have ever seen were the cuneiform tablets we were shown in Syria a few years back.  This morning I finished a book I had meant to read since I began to write The Good Afterlife Guide over 15 years ago, subsequently abandoned because Elaine said I would be the subject of a universal fatwah: Gilgamesh.  

The ‘new’ English version by Stephen Mitchell (Profile Books, 2004) begins: “In Iraq, when the dust blows, stopping men and tanks, it brings with it memories of an ancient world, much older than Islam or Christianity.  Western civilization originated from that place between the Tigris and the Euphrates, where Hammarubi created his legal code and where Gilgamesh was written — the oldest story in the world, a thousand years older than the Iliad or the Bible.”

The story was decoded from the cuneiform fragments on 11 clay tablets discovered in 1850 in the ruins of Nineveh, although they were not fully deciphered until the end of the nineteenth century.  And it was extraordinary to read of Utnapishtim, a Noah-like rider of the Flood, conceived ages before our own Noah surfaced.  I was particularly struck by the way that story doesn’t simply circle back to its beginning, but evolves in a spiral, reaching a new level as it ends.

 

Stamped out – but No. 21 lives on in the imagination  

When I met him recently, fellow cyclist London Mayor Boris Johnson and I very much saw eye-to-eye on buses – particularly on the need to get rid of the bendy nightmares and the potential for rehumanising this city’s overground public transport by reanimating the spirit of the much-loved, much-missed Routemaster. Now he has joined Transport for London to launch a competition to design a brand new bus for London, inspired by the Routemaster.

At a launch event in the London Transport Museum he and Transport Commissioner Peter Hendy invited would-be designers to submit their ideas. Budding designers are encouraged to submit their designs in one of two categories:

1. Design a bus for London. Entrants will have the option of submitting a design for a specific part of the bus or a ‘whole bus’ design. In this category, designs will have to be quite detailed and must comply with guideline specifications as provided by TfL. A number of drawings will be required, as well as written documents providing reasoning and more detailed descriptions of the design and features of the bus.

    

2. imagine a bus for London.  In this category, entrants can submit single design concepts for particular features of the bus, or a sketch of the overall look. The judges will be looking for the best ideas rather than detailed technical designs. Entries will be judged in four age categories: under 11, 11-15, 16-18, and over 18.

The new bus “should have a stylish, imaginative design which will have a big impact on the streets of London. Key features designers must consider include an open platform to allow passengers to board and alight quickly and easily; good use of interior space; accessibility; and green technology.” Further details and full terms and conditions at www.tfl.gov.uk/anewbusforlondon.

Oxford Street eastward 1

One of the great joys of cycling in London is the sky views overhead. Stopped several times today to take photos of the aerial extravaganzas overhead.

Oxford Street eastward 2  Holborn